Top 10 OT Cybersecurity Predictions to Watch
With over two decades of OT cybersecurity and industrial automation expertise across critical infrastructure sectors, I have collaborated with global visionaries to refine defense strategies against emerging threats. My extensive experience has honed my ability to anticipate and drive significant industry shifts, preparing my clients to robustly secure their operations for the future. Drawing on these successes, I am excited to share insights that will empower IIoT and OT leaders to excel in the rapidly evolving cybersecurity landscape. Let’s explore the top 10 cybersecurity trends set to transform operational technology from my perspective. I encourage you to add your own insights and predictions in the comments below.
1. Security for OT Cloud and IIoT Devices
The proliferation of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) devices has dramatically expanded the attack surface in operational technology (OT) environments. These devices now play critical roles in control systems beyond simple monitoring. As smart manufacturing and the concept of future factories integrate with private and public 5G networks, the complexity of these systems escalates. Effective management of these advancements requires robust security measures, including stringent device authentication, strong encryption, and regular firmware updates to prevent unauthorized access and maintain data integrity. Moreover, as OT environments embrace cloud technologies, they face significant challenges in integrating older hardware with modern security protocols. The limitations of the traditional Purdue model are increasingly evident, prompting a shift towards developing new OT-specific protocols to better suit contemporary cybersecurity needs.
2. Autonomous AI and Cloud Connectivity at OT Levels 1 and 2
The integration of cloud connectivity in the OT environment is expected to surge over the next two years, particularly impacting critical infrastructure sectors beyond traditional areas like manufacturing and robotics. Industry leaders may meet this forecast with initial skepticism, but rapid advancements in LLM AI and its swift adoption in corporate settings underscore the impending shift. This evolution is set to trigger a major move towards autonomous operations, propelled by rapid progress in GAI and AGI technologies. These technologies are being adopted in response to declining interest in STEM fields and a shortfall in engineering technical skills. The move from automated to autonomous systems, driven by AI-informed operational decisions, aims to significantly enhance operational flexibility, predictive maintenance, decision-making, and data analytics, all while bolstering real-time international collaboration. However, this expansion has challenges; it introduces new risks and attack vectors. Navigating this complex landscape effectively will rely on insights from the Autonomous Maturity Model and may also necessitate the development of OT-specific cloud protocols.
3. Expansion of Remote Access Solutions and Adoption of Zero Trust Technologies
As remote operations continue to expand, the imperative for secure remote access solutions has never been greater. To safeguard remote access points, these solutions must incorporate multi-factor authentication, end-to-end encryption, and secure tunneling protocols. Simultaneously, the zero-trust security model is becoming essential for securing OT environments beyond secure remote access. Over the past year, the adoption of zero trust principles has started to permeate the entire OT network, with an expectation of continued growth. This trend is seeing zero trust architecture applied more broadly across networks, facilitated by mature solutions that enable effective network segmentation and require no implicit trust within the network. Implementing zero trust necessitates comprehensive technological upgrades and a fundamental shift in organizational culture towards continuous monitoring and stringent access controls, ensuring that every point of network access is verified to significantly enhance security posture.
4. OT Cyber-Physical Security Convergence
As IT and OT continue to merge, integrating cybersecurity with physical security becomes essential for protecting OT systems. This is particularly crucial for Programmable Logic Controllers and other isolated or air-gapped systems, which are vulnerable to unauthorized access that can lead to significant damage despite being disconnected from broader networks. Highly susceptible to digital threats, sectors like energy, utilities, and manufacturing are moving towards a dual-layered security strategy. By mid-2025, we anticipate significant advances in integrating physical access controls with zero-trust access principles, alongside deploying advanced camera surveillance, comprehensive user access controls, and user behavior analysis. This holistic security framework protects interconnected systems against sabotage and espionage, ensuring their integrity and resilience. Please reach out if you want a more in-depth understanding of the topic.
5. Decline in System Upgrades and Emphasis on Protection over Detection in OT Security
Looking beyond 2027, the challenges of obsolescence in operational technology (OT) will persist, driven by escalating upgrade costs, complex supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts, and constrained budgets. Many OT systems continue to rely on obsolete controllers, outdated operating systems, and aging devices. In this environment, asset owners are recognizing the limitations of traditional detection-based security measures. Contrary to prevailing market trends and advertisements, there is a significant shift towards proactive protection strategies. These strategies are crucial for safeguarding legacy infrastructure until comprehensive upgrades are viable. This transition underscores the growing need for robust protection techniques that secure vulnerable OT assets against emerging threats, ensuring critical infrastructures' continued operation and integrity.
6. Increased Regulatory and Compliance Pressures
Regulatory demands on asset owners and service providers in the OT sector are escalating. Emerging trends include the enforcement of the Secure Bill of Materials, data localization, and secure-by-design principles. By mid-2025, I anticipate a trend towards more stringent enforcement over vendors to standardize network architectures and agree on common standards, enhancing protection measures. This will likely lead to introducing a new common OT interfacing protocol by 2026 to facilitate solution integrations. Recent Saudi National Cybersecurity Authority regulations underscore a global trend towards stricter cybersecurity measures, particularly for managed service and SOC providers. Compliance with both international standards and local regulations now necessitates comprehensive periodic audits and penetration testing. OT operators must remain vigilant and adaptable to these regulatory changes to ensure continuous compliance and avoid penalties.
7. More adoption of OT Disaster Recovery and Business Continuity Plans
Over the last two years, the trend for designing policies and procedures for OT in North America has increased; however, this trend began five years ago in the EMEA region. Due to increased maturity and regulations, the need to develop robust disaster recovery and business continuity plans will continue to grow this year and in the following years. These plans are crucial to ensure that operations can be maintained or quickly restored after a cyber incident. They should include regular updates and testing to adapt to new threats. Cyber drills and tabletop exercises should also be conducted to train staff on emergency procedures and response strategies.
8. Introducing OT CISO title to lead IT/OT Convergence
This trend is not new, but it is evolving, and we will continue to see asset owners create IT/OT teams that report to the CISO or CIO's office. Integrating IT and OT systems offers numerous benefits, including streamlined management and enhanced data analytics. However, this convergence also introduces significant challenges, such as increased IT vulnerabilities within the OT space.
This necessitates the adoption of shared cybersecurity practices and tools to effectively mitigate risks. The convergence also drives the need for a dedicated OT CISO role. It is anticipated that by 2025, we will see these specialized security leaders in action, playing crucial roles in bridging the gap between IT and OT cybersecurity strategies. I have been coaching multiple business leaders in this area of IT/OT leadership, and you can read my article Here
9. Generative AI and AGI for OT Cybersecurity
The widespread adoption of Generative AI (GAI) and advancements in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) present dual challenges and opportunities for OT cybersecurity. These technologies, now more accessible, have increased phishing and social engineering attacks and could enable more sophisticated cyber threats. This shift necessitates a proactive revision of cybersecurity frameworks to effectively counter and adapt to AI-driven threats, ensuring robust defense mechanisms keep pace with technological advancements.
10. OT Cybersecurity Digital Twin and LLM-Based Predictive Security:
AI advancements are revolutionizing digital twin technology, paving the way for what I term "OT Digital Twin Whitelisting." This model will greatly facilitate the construction of accurate OT system representations and enable proactive identification of malicious activities. I anticipate this trend gaining traction by mid-2025. Before this, the use of machine learning and Large Language Models (LLMs) for predictive security is expected to become widespread across OT environments, building on existing implementations at a smaller scale. These technological advances will dramatically improve the tools available for asset identification and classification, equipping Security Operations Center (SOC) analysts with more precise insights and predictive data. This will allow for preemptive security measures, significantly enhancing SOC analysts' ability to identify and mitigate threats before they escalate. Furthermore, this technology is likely to propel the adoption of OT SOC as a service, a shift driven by the prevailing skill shortage as more organizations recognize the value of sophisticated, predictive security measures managed by specialized external teams. I have an article explaining the pros and cons of OT SOC as on-prem vs. MSSP, and I had an earlier podcast with Greg Hale about the same topic.
The landscape of OT cybersecurity is constantly changing, driven by relentless technological advancements and the ever-evolving dynamics of cyber threats. As we unpack these transformative trends, it's clear that adopting a proactive and informed cybersecurity strategy is not just advisable—it's essential. The stakes are high: the resilience and success of modern industrial operations depend on it.
Cybersecurity in the OT space must evolve from being seen as a static shield or a one-off initiative to becoming a dynamic, integrated part of your ongoing enterprise strategy, responsive to new challenges and innovations.
For OT cybersecurity leaders, CISOs, and IT/OT professionals tasked with fortifying their organizations, our journey into the depths of cybersecurity trends is just beginning. The next installment in this series will dive deeper, aiming to equip you with the knowledge and tools necessary to build a robust cybersecurity framework.
If you have any queries or require further assistance in shaping your organization's cybersecurity landscape, please contact me directly!
